By Conor Duffy and Sophie Scott
In anxious days, with a microscopic enemy tearing across
the globe, parents across Australia are rightly wondering: should I send
my child to school?
The urge to protect our children makes it a
natural concern, so given the urgent calls to enforce stricter social
distancing measures, the answer may surprise many.
Governments
have had pressure from parents to follow the lead of 30 countries with
school closures, including France, where classrooms will shut as of this
school week.
"I would say to all parents that I understand that
this is a worrying time, but they should be heartened by the fact that
we have the best medical experts in the world here in Australia, and we
are working closely with them and acting upon their advice," federal
Education Minister Dan Tehan said.
Well-placed sources within the
sector say mass school closures are unlikely to happen in Australia
soon, and that schools could be one of the last institutions to face
mass closures.
The exceptions are exclusive boarding school Geelong Grammar — which is ending term one this week — and
Launceston's Scotch Oakburn College, which has moved to online learning.
In
a letter to parents, Geelong Grammar principal Rebecca Cody cited the
school's unique position, hosting students from 16 countries as well as
every Australian state and territory.
"We deem this to be a timely judgment with a highly precautionary emphasis," she said in a written statement.
If social distancing is key, why not close schools?
One
reason is that, at this stage, school-aged children seem to be the
cohort least affected by the virus. The reasons for that are not yet
known.
Data from countries that have closed schools to slow the spread of COVID-19 shows it's not the panacea some think.
According to
modelling from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),
there's no evidence that Hong Kong — which closed schools — was more
successful in containing the virus than Singapore, which didn't.
What if kids are 'super spreaders'?
Virologist
Ian MacKay from the University of Queensland said making the decision
whether to send kids to school was indeed challenging.
"If we were
really serious about flattening the curve [of spread of the virus] we
would have to think about closing schools," he said.
"But we have
to balance that against all the social disruption that would cause,
including taking people out of various jobs so parents could look after
small children at home."
Professor MacKay said experts simply
don't know yet if children who appear to be healthy are in fact carrying
and spreading the virus.
"We know children get the
virus, but are they creating a major part of the transmission chain, or
are they having low viral loads and not passing the virus on?" he said.
"We need to find that out so we can have a better understanding of the role that schools play in transmitting the virus."
If
a student or teacher tests positive to coronavirus, temporary closures
will continue, to allow for disinfecting and contact tracing.
What's
unequivocal is that the best thing parents can do is ensure children
wash their hands for 20 seconds with soap and water, and observe good
hygiene.
Easier said than done?
This cartoon may help when you explain to your little ones why they should sing the alphabet twice while they wash their hands.
School closures could be dangerous
The
other advice experts are urging us to consider is that it could
actually be more dangerous to close schools than to keep them open.
"The
advice from medical experts is that not having students at school could
actually lead to a greater risk of the virus spreading," Mr Tehan said.
According
to the CDC, that's because unsupervised children might engage in social
mixing without adults keeping track of who is meeting who.
"Longer
closures may result in more students congregating outside of school [eg
other students' homes, shopping malls], which will increase risk to
older adults or those with comorbidities," it warns.
Robert Booy,
from the Centre for Research Excellence in Population Health, said a
review of scientific literature of school closures and epidemics found
closing schools had an "equivocal benefit" on stopping transmission.
"If
you take kids out of school, they then mix with adults and other kids
in the park and that may do as much harm as good," Professor Booy said.
Without
school, of course, children still need to be cared for and that may
mean grandparents are called on for extra babysitting duties.
Older carers are among the most susceptible to suffering serious symptoms and are also among those most likely to die.
Professor Booy said if children are at all unwell, their grandparents should not be the people caring for them.
"If possible, one parent working from home or alternative care would be better," he said.
How else could schooling change?
Education ministers are actively considering extending the two-week Easter holidays to three weeks.
That
would allow social distancing to continue but with a degree of planning
and with less disruption than an immediate long-term mass closure.
It would also allow time and breathing space to assess and implement additional hygiene measures on campuses.
It will likely be considered for the two-week winter break too.
"That
will be dependent on the medical advice that the government is given
but obviously schools and government are planning contingencies so we
have them in place if the medical advice says that we need to look at
such things," Mr Tehan said.
More schools may also move to cancel large gatherings like assemblies and change long-established school routines.
Other
options to slow the spread of the virus could include closing
playgrounds, stopping non-essential gatherings at schools, staggering
lunch breaks, changing the timetable to a three or four-day week, and
rotating secondary school teachers between classrooms rather than having
scores of students changing classrooms.
"These measures can make a difference and there are very high costs of lengthy school closures," Professor Booy said.
The
public, private and catholic sectors at this stage are united in their
plans to keep classes running, although all are making preparations for
remote teaching.
Closing schools could impact the medical workforce
Closing
schools across the board could also impact the ability of the health
workforce to provide medical care, when it's most needed.
"If you
have a school where a significant number of [parents are] health
workers and they have to take time off work to look after their kids,
then the intensive care units could end up under a lot more stress,"
Professor Booy said.
Health authorities across the world are
grappling with how to manage school closures and still allow the health
workforce to function.
Mr Tehan said that is a key reason schools are remaining open for now.
"It's also so we don't have any impacts on workforce, in particular, on our medical workforce, at this stage," he said.
What would likely trigger mass closures?
The newly formed National Cabinet will review schools again on Friday.
If the outbreak begins to climb steeply, it could change its advice.
Mr Tehan said the decision will be made by experts rather than politicians.
"They
are the ones that have the expertise when it comes to pandemic planning
and it is their advice that both the Federal Government and state and
territory governments are listening too," he said.
Australian authorities believe coronavirus will pose a threat for at least six months.
School closures would be an extreme social distancing measure and part of the arsenal held in reserve.
"All
contingencies have been planned for and Australia has been preparing
now since the end of January and [has] put in place contingencies and we
will continue to do that," Mr Tehan said.
School closures are currently being deployed as part of wider lockdowns across Europe, which is the new epicentre of the virus.
About
30 countries have implemented national school closures, affecting 400
million children, and a further 20 countries have enforced localised
closures.
Belgium, France and Switzerland are the latest countries
to close schools and despite being hit hard by COVID-19, most German
states have opted to keep classes running.
The Republic of Ireland
closed schools before its neighbours in Northern Ireland. Northern
Ireland is now warning its closures may be as long as 16 weeks.
What about childcare?
Essentially,
that's up to you. If you're able to work from home, experts say it
would greatly assist Australia's social distancing efforts.
It would also help minimise contact and therefore the spread of the virus for adults, rather than young children.
There is also evidence early childhood learning at childcare and pre-school
can help children achieve better results when they start primary school.
Parents
should note that childcare centres are unlikely to offer a fee break,
unless parents forfeit the child's spot altogether.
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