Articles by "Investing"


For Chipotle, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. (Photo credit: Craig Warga/Bloomberg)
Chipotle is trying to win back customers, and in doing so, some new lingo has become part of its regular vocabulary. Take BOGO, freebie and direct mail, for instance.
As the Mexican restaurant chain prepares to report its first-ever quarterly loss on Tuesday, thanks to the fallout from hundreds of sickened customers across the country, it has turned to discounts and promotions.
There are some early signs that this might be helping. When Chipotle started to see sales recover in February, it gave credit to the burritos it was giving away. “Free burritos — turns out it works. It brings people into the restaurants,” commented chief financial officer Jack Hartung.
The company has since done a lot more with coupons, like offering free chips and guac for playing a game and a free Izze drink and entree with the purchase of an entree. Chipotle said last month that it was putting a whopping 21 million coupons in the mail and a recent survey from Cowen & Co. found that people who received a coupon ate at Chipotle roughly four times in one month. This was about three times more than people who didn’t get a coupon.
These efforts are seen as important for luring customers back and Chipotle has said it may continue to add promotions if it’s not seeing as many people in its restaurants as it would like. For instance, Chipotle’s chief marketing officer Mark Crumpacker said direct mail wasn’t working as well as expected on the West and East Coasts so the company may “goose” them with mobile offers.
This type of thing suggests Chipotle may be “bending to soft traffic,” says J.P. Morgan analyst John Ivankoe, and executing from “a position of weakness.”
Recommended by Forbes
Wall Street is already questioning what it will take for Chipotle to pull back on promos — and how it will fare once it does. ”We view couponing as the gateway to improving traffic in the near term, but do not view it as a sustainable strategy,” wrote Cowen & Co. analyst Andrew Charles in a recent note.
Stephens analyst Will Slabaugh echoed this sentiment: “We think it will be difficult to fully dial this back down to previous levels without a traffic impact (i.e., it likely isn’t fully dialed back).”
Chipotle is also facing scrutiny about how much it’s spending on these marketing efforts. As Charles puts it, Chipotle faces a “‘double whammy’ risk” as it shells out on marketing and promotions in an effort to boost traffic, which then eats into its profits.
For the first quarter, Wall Street is anticipating a loss of 94 cents per share, above Chipotle’s projections that it would post a loss of $1 per share “or worse.” This would be the first time Chipotle has ever reported a quarterly loss.
The restaurant chain is also shelling out on costs associated with the careful handling of its food, pay for its employees and legal fees.
“2016 will be a very difficult year relative to our past performance,” remarked co-CEO Monty Moran earlier this year. Chipotle same-store sales plummeted 16% in November and have only gotten worse since then, falling 36.4% in January and 26.1% in February. That’s where the coupons come in.
Chipotle_Same-Store_Sales_Dropped_Off_A_Cliff_17.3_chartbuilder
Chipotle’s stock has also taken a beating and, at $438 per share, is down by almost half from its high last fall.

Daniel Fisher
With its decision Wednesday upholding the constitutionality of a special law awarding the money to more than 1,000 victims and family members of Iran-sponsored terrorist attacks, the U.S. Supreme Court removed the last obstacle standing in front of Fay’s clients.
The case actually involves 16 lawsuits and a number of law firms but it was Fay who pioneered the idea of using U.S. civil litigation to hit foreign terrorists where American lawyers always aim: in the pocketbook. It took more than a decade of hard-fought litigation – often over the objections of the White House and the U.S. State Dept. – and heavy lobbying in Congress to obtain special legislation to overcome institutional hostility toward subjecting sovereign foreign countries to the jurisdiction of U.S. courts.
The 1983 Marine barracks bombing in Beirut: Grist for a billion-dollar lawsuit. (AP Photo/Jim Bourdier, File)
“We went after them and the U.S. government was on the other side every step of the way,” said Fay, 76, a partner with Fay Kaplan Law along with his daughter Caragh Glenn Fay.
Congress is debating the topic again as it mulls a bipartisan bill allowing U.S. victims to sue Saudi Arabia over its alleged complicity in the 9/11 attacks. Most lawsuits against foreign nations are blocked by the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act, a 1976 statute that protects them from civil liability over anything but purely commercial activities or standard torts (like a foreign official running over an American with his car in New York City). Congress has carved out several exceptions, however, including nations determined to be state sponsors of terrorism.
Recommended by Forbes
Fay knows all about the process of getting exceptions, since he prodded Congress to pass the laws that facilitated his case against Iran and says he helped write at least one of them. The first was a 1996 amendment to the FSIA allowing U.S. victims to sue foreign state sponsors of terrorism. A Washington court soon cabined that law, ruling it didn’t actually create a federal cause of action for individuals to sue, so the lawyers pressed their claims under state law instead.


Then Congress passed the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 allowing plaintiffs to attach assets of terrorist states that had been blocked by the government. But Iran fought that in court, winning procedural rulings such as one declaring assets held in an intermediary bank to be the property of neither the sending party nor the receiver.
So in 2008, at the prodding of Fay and other lawyers representing terrorism victims, Congress created a federal cause of action against terrorist states and provided a mechanism for exercising judgments, which were by then piling up by the billions. It also expanded the list of plaintiffs to include military personnel and foreign nationals working for the U.S. military, to cover victims of the 1996 Khobar Toweras bombing in Saudi Arabia and twin al Qaeda embassy bombings in Africa in 1998.
Iran still fought, so in 2012 Congress passed 22 U.S. C. §8772, a law allowing plaintiffs in one consolidated case, identified by number, to tap the Citibank account to satisfy judgments they’d won by default against Iran.
The Supreme Court’s decision upholding that last law came over the vociferous objections of Chief Justice John Roberts, who saw it as impermissible Congressional meddling in the judicial process. But Roberts’ dissent, which was joined by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, mystifies Fay, who notes that Congress has always had the power to determine the jurisdiction of federal courts (except for the Supreme Court). All §8772 did was eliminate procedural roadblocks peculiar to a case involving a foreign sovereign that prevented his clients from collecting on a final judgment.
Assuming the money flows as expected, some 1,500 plaintiffs will get an average of $900,000 or so and lawyers like Fay should get very, very rich on fees. Fay said the details of the arrangements with the plaintiffs are confidential, but the typical contingency fee in a civil case is 30% or more. That would mean $600 million or more in fees flowing to the four-member Kaplan Fay firm and others including Stone Bonner & Rocco and Salon Marrow Dyckman in New York. The plaintiffs were represented at the Supreme Court by Ted Olson of Gibson Dunn & Crutcher.
“Remember, we’ve been litigating this case for 15 years,” said Fay, a Delaware native and Rutgers Law School grad who ditched a boring government job early in his career to become a $15-an-hour criminal defense attorney. “Even if everybody was getting minimum wage, it’s into seven figures.”


Fay got involved in the mid-1990s after attorney Stephen Perles represented the family of Alisa Flatow, an American killed in a 1995 bus bombing in Israel that was financed by Iran. He hired Fay to litigate and push legislation in Congress, resulting in the so-called Flatow Amendment, allowing for punitive damages against state sponsors of terror. The Flatows won $247 million against Iran in 1998, but there was no method for collecting.
Fay then took on the case of soldiers and family members of the victims of the 1983 bombing of a Marine barracks in Beirut, which killed 241 U.S. soldiers. The case grew to more than 1,000 claimants thanks to U.S. tort law, which allows close family members to sue over the psychological effects of a terrorist attack on a loved one.
Along the way Fay and his colleagues got an education in transnational litigation. There’s a detailed procedure under the FSIA for serving notice on a foreign government, and it’s nothing like sending the sheriff out to knock on somebody’s door. Fay had to file a motion with the Secretary of State, who then put the service papers in a diplomatic pouch to Switzerland, which has diplomatic relations with Iran.
“You’d die laughing” at the note the Swiss sent to their counterparts in Iran, Fay said, which was full of formal greeting and salutations before notifying them they’d been sued in a U.S. court. The entire process, he said, might take four months. And then Iran would refuse to show up.
U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth found Iran liable in 2003 and ordered a $2.7 billion default judgment in September 2007. The money was waiting for them at Citibank, $1.7 billion in bonds nominally belonging to a Luxembourg shell company that the Treasury had blocked as property of the central bank of Iran. (Any transaction clearing in U.S. dollars has to travel through a bank in the U.S. eventually, giving authorities a shot at intercepting Iranian funds.)
Actually getting the money took several more years  of litigation plus the 2012 law, which Iran challenged all the way to the Supreme Court. It lost this week.
Recommended by Forbes
The Iran decision may help efforts to pass a law allowing U.S. victims of the 9/11 attacks to sue Saudi Arabia, said Jimmy Gurulé, a professor at Notre Dame Law School who was undersecretary for enforcement at the Treasury Dept. when the 9/11 attacks occurred and later implemented Treasury’s global strategy to intercept terrorist financing.


‘The surviving family members of the 9/11 attack are going to say `Hey look what happened there. Why can’t we sue,’” said Gurulé, who once worked on Fay’s cases and submitted an amicus brief in the Bank Markazy litigation.
He doesn’t think that’s a bad idea, either.
“If a foreign state is vulnerable to being sued, is that going to have a deterrent effect?” he asked. “Is that going to cause these states to engage in greater due diligence?”
Fay acknowledges ISIS might be one side effect of lawsuits like his. The nominally independent terrorist group could serve a shield to hide the involvement of financiers in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. But on balance he’s convinced American tort law can help reduce terrorism overseas.
For now, he’s happy to be on the “downhill slide” toward collecting against Iran.
“When we filed it I don’t know how many lawyers came up to me in Washington and said `you’ll never get a dime out of it,’” Fay said, laughing.

Credit: Lynn Greyling/Public Domain
Encountering information suggesting that it may be tough to find a romantic partner shifts people's decision making toward riskier options, according to new findings from a series of studies published in Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.
"Environmental cues indicating that one will have a relatively difficult time finding a mate can drive people to concentrate their investment choices into a few high-risk, high-return options," says psychological scientist Joshua Ackerman of the University of Michigan, lead author on the research. "This is true even when the decisions people are making are not explicitly relevant to romantic outcomes."
"This is exactly opposite from the pattern of investing we would predict if we assumed people were using an economically 'rational' decision strategy," Ackerman explains. "From an evolutionary perspective, if the options are to do whatever it takes to find a romantic partner or risk not finding one, the more rational choice may be to do whatever it takes."
Research has shown that people who face uncertain outcomes often diversify their choices as a strategy for mitigating risk—if one investment or option falls through, they still have other investments or options to fall back on. Ackerman and colleagues speculated that diversification may not be the optimal strategy if romantic success depends on passing above a certain threshold when it comes to resources, status, or attractiveness. Choosing high-risk, high-reward strategies, even in domains unrelated to romance, could help an individual surpass the threshold and stand out from his or her competitors.
To test their hypothesis, the researchers designed a series of studies in which they manipulated the perceived odds of romantic success by presenting participants with information about the ratio of women to men in their area. An unfavorable sex ratio—a majority of men if you're a heterosexual man, for example—indicates that it will be harder for most people to find and attract a potential partner.
In one study, 93 heterosexual participants looked at three photos displays containing images of men and women aged 18 to 35 who supposedly lived in the local community. Participants, who thought they were participating in a memory study, looked at the photos and were then asked to recall how many men and women appeared in each display. In this way, the researchers were able to ensure that participants were aware of the sex ratio depicted in the displays.
Then, as part of an ostensibly unrelated task, participants were asked to imagine they were buying scratch-off lottery tickets and were told to choose which option they would purchase: one $10 ticket for a $10,000 prize or ten $1 tickets for $1000 each.
Participants who saw an unfavorable sex ratio were more likely to concentrate their resources, choosing the riskier $10 ticket option, than those who saw a favorable sex ratio. In other words, they were more likely to put their proverbial eggs in one basket.
In a second online study, 105 participants read a newspaper article discussing demographic trends in the U.S. They then evaluated stock packages with equivalent values (e.g., 100 shares in 8 companies, 200 shares in 4 companies, etc.) and chose which package they would invest in.
Again, the data showed that both male and female participants who read about unfavorable sex ratios opted for riskier investments, choosing more shares in fewer companies, than those who read about favorable ratios.
A similar pattern emerged when the researchers had participants engage in other types of investing decision making, including allocating funds in a hypothetical retirement account and distributing resources among companies for vaccine research and development. Importantly, the effect did not depend on participants' own investing experience and relationship status.
The fact that sex ratio had an impact on decisions that were not directly linked with mating success suggests that sexual competition elicits a general mindset geared toward achieving the largest possible reward, regardless of the risk involved.
As such, the researchers argue, these findings could have implications for decision making in domains as diverse as retirement planning, gambling, and even making consumer purchases.
"This research has the potential to affect anyone making decisions with uncertain outcomes, including both single and romantically committed men and women," says Ackerman.

Geezwild

Contact Form

Name

Email *

Message *

Powered by Blogger.
Javascript DisablePlease Enable Javascript To See All Widget