The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday
warned Nigerians to brace for a longer period of low revenue from oil
sources, which would necessitate hard and uncomfortable choices.
The committee, in a communique issued at the end of its first meeting
for the 2016 fiscal period in Abuja, observed that while the period of
low oil prices, which occurred in 2005, lasted for a maximum of eight
months, the current situation was expected to continue over a longer
period of time.
The CBN Governor. Mr. Godwin Emefiele, who read out the communique
shortly after the meeting, said the development would necessitate huge
sacrifices from Nigerians.
Crude oil prices had declined from a peak of $114 barrel in July 2014 to $30.25 per barrel on Tuesday.
The CBN governor said since oil prices had been on a steady decline,
certain trade-offs would have to be envisaged and accommodated.
He said, “The committee observed that the last episode of low oil prices
in 2005 lasted for a maximum period of eight months. However, the
current episode of lower oil prices is projected to remain over a very
long period.
“Consequently, it is imperative to brace for a longer period of low
government revenues from oil sources, which would necessitate hard and
uncomfortable choices as the economy transits to more sustainable
sources of revenue, consistent with the economic realities and strategic
objectives of the country. In the circumstance, certain trade-offs must
be envisaged and duly accommodated.”
As a result of the drop in oil revenues, the governor said the need for
consistently sound and coordinated macro economy policies had become
inevitable.
In view of this, Emefiele said the central bank was currently refining
the framework for foreign exchange management in order to ensure a more
effective and liquid forex market.
He added, “In the medium term within which monetary policy is cast, the
need to allow policy to produce the desired outcomes becomes a key
consideration in the policy mix.
“Consequently, the bank is fine-tuning the framework for foreign
exchange management with a view to ensuring a more effective and liquid
foreign exchange market, taking into account Nigeria’s strategic
development priorities, with the policies being designed within an
environment of regularly ensuring consistency with monetary and fiscal
policies.”
On the Monetary Policy Rate, the governor said the committee decided to unanimously retain it at the current 11 per cent.
The bank had earlier in November last year reduced the MPR from 13 per cent to 11 per cent.
The CBN governor said the committee also decided to retain the Cash
Reserve Requirement at 20 per cent and the liquidity ratio at 30 per
cent, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 basis points and -700 basis
points.
He said the decision to retain the rates was taken in order to ensure
that the objective of easing lending to the real sector of the economy
was achieved.
Emefiele explained that while the central bank had last November taken
steps to encourage Deposit Money Banks to lend to the real sector of the
economy, the impact of that decision had yet to be felt.
He lamented that while the objective of stabilising the financial system
in the aftermath of the Treasury Single Account withdrawals and
JPMorgan’s delisting of Nigeria from its index had been largely
achieved, the goal of increasing lending to key sectors of the economy
had not been realised.
The governor said the CBN would continue to use moral suasion to
encourage the DMBs to support financing for targeted lending to the real
sector as well as agriculture, solid minerals and Small and Medium
Enterprises sectors of the economy.
He said, “The committee acknowledged the continuous liquidity surfeit in
the system stemming partly from the recent growth-stimulating monetary
policy measures as well as the tendency of the banks to invest excess
reserves in government securities rather than extend credit to the
needed sectors of the economy.
“To this end, the committee once again urged the Deposit Money Banks to
improve lending to the real sector as part of their patriotic
obligations to the country, and enjoined the management of the central
bank to continue to explore ways of incentivising lending to employment
and growth-generating sectors, particularly the SMEs.”
When asked if the CBN would consider forcing the banks to lend to the
real sector, Emefiele stated that inasmuch as it would prefer that the
DMBs should increase lending to the real sector, it would be practically
impossible to force them to do so due to the fact that the banks were
established to make profit.
He said, “Unfortunately, the DMBs are in business to make money and we
cannot regulate their interest rate. And so, it can be difficult to
really force them to lend to a particular set of people. But what we can
continue to do is to put in place policies that will encourage them to
do so or we can continue to incentivise them by putting in place
policies that will encourage them to do so.
“So, it is a free market and we cannot really compel them as it is
expected. We will continue to try. This is why at the last meeting, we
reduced the CRR from 25 per cent to 20 per cent. And we now insisted
that liquidity that would be made available or that those banks could
only enjoy the reduction if they introduce to the CBN projects that are
targeted at the real sector such as manufacturing, agriculture and the
SMEs.
“It is just two months since this policy (was introduced) and it is
still early to assess the impact. However, we remain optimistic that the
banks will heed this advice and lend to the real sector. Because this
liquidity is just sitting at the CBN and until they decide to work with
us on this, the funds will not be made available.”
When asked if the CBN would consider the devaluation of the naira in
view of the increasing pressure on the currency, the governor said there
were no immediate plans to do so.
He said the central bank was working on a number of scenarios under
different crude oil prices, noting that discussions at management and
monetary policy committee levels would still continue.
Emefiele said, “We don’t have any immediate plan to devalue the naira.
However, we are already working on different scenarios; the models are
being worked on. We have them and as much as possible, we will look at
scenarios under different crude prices and we will continue to discuss
at management and monetary policy committee levels.
“We will try as much as possible to continue to share our thoughts with
the fiscal authorities with the view to harmonising our positions to
ensure that notwithstanding the drop in crude prices, that we are able
to continue to run government and do business.
“We are very conscious of this and we know that we are at an era where
the drop in or low crude price will remain for a long time with us. It
is not going to be like in 2008 or 2009 where it was just for about
eight months. So far, we have seen this for 14 months now and there
doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel.”
On the introduction of the N50 stamp duty charge, Emefiele explained
that the decision was taken to support the government in its bid to
generate more revenue due to the drop in oil prices, adding that the
nation’s external reserves currently stood at about $28bn.