What happened?
For four and a half years,
Virgin Galactic has been putting SpaceShipTwo through a series of
flight tests, with the aim of eventually using it to fly people to the
edge of space, 100 kilometers (62 miles) up. Friday's test was the first
rocket-powered flight test since January, and the first aerial test of a new kind of plastic-based fuel that engineers thought would improve the hybrid rocket motor's performance.
The 27-foot-wide plane
was slung beneath a 141-foot-wide, twin-fuselage carrier airplane called
WhiteKnightTwo, and the paired planes took off from California's Mojave
Air and Space Port at about 9:20 a.m. PT (12:20 p.m. ET). Each of the
planes had two test pilots aboard. About 50 minutes later,
WhiteKnightTwo released SpaceShipTwo for free flight from an altitude of
about 50,000 feet. The rocket engine lit up and powered SpaceShipTwo
skyward. Then something went wrong.
Some observers reported
seeing an anomalous flare-up or explosion. Pieces of debris fell onto
the desert, but parachutes were also sighted. When witnesses reached the
crash site, they found one of the pilots dead. "It was not pretty,"
said photographer Ken Brown, who was on the scene. The other pilot
parachuted to the ground with injuries, and was taken to a hospital in
nearby Lancaster.
What caused the anomaly?
For now, the rocket motor is the prime suspect.
The motor's fuel and
plumbing went through significant alterations since the previous
rocket-powered flight in January. However, Kevin Mickey — the president
of Scaled Composites, the Mojave-based company that has been developing
and testing SpaceShipTwo for Virgin Galactic — pointed out that the new
propulsion system went through extensive on-the-ground testing in
advance of Friday's flight.
Another concern has to
do with the nitrous oxide that interacts with the fuel to generate the
rocket power. Nitrous oxide, also known as "laughing gas," is usually
considered nontoxic. But three workers at Scaled Composites were killed on the ground in 2007 when a tank of nitrous oxide exploded.
In the wake of that 2007
blast, some critics voiced concerns about the hybrid rocket motor that
was being being developed for SpaceShipTwo — and said Virgin Galactic
should have gone with a more traditional liquid-fueled rocket engine
instead. That debate is now likely to get more attention.
Who's responsible for oversight?
The
Federal Aviation Administration's Office of Commercial Space
Transportation issues permits and licenses for commercial human
spaceflight. Scaled Composites and Virgin Galactic have been operating
under an experimental launch permit, which lets them test the plane but doesn't let them fly paying customers.
Virgin Galactic had been
planning to get SpaceShipTwo certified for commercial operations
sometime in the next few months. Under legislation that will remain in
force for at least a year longer,
the FAA's regulatory authority is limited to protecting the general
public and ensuring that passengers are adequately informed about the
risks of spaceflight before they get on board. That "fly at your own
risk" arrangement for suborbital spaceflight will have to reapproved or
modified in the months to come.
As for the investigation
into Friday's failure, the National Transportation Safety Board has the
lead role. The NTSB's "Go Team" is due to arrive on the scene on
Saturday. The FAA will play a supporting role, as will state and local
agencies.
What does this mean for private spaceflight?
More
than 700 customers have paid as much as $250,000 to take a ride on
SpaceShipTwo, but Virgin Galactic says that money is refundable if the
reservation is canceled. It remains to be seen how many will ask for
refunds because of Friday's crash. Virgin Galactic's manufacturing
subsidiary, The Spaceship Company, is building a second SpaceShipTwo plane in Mojave — and the fleet had been projected to grow to five rocket planes and two carrier airplanes.
Another company, XCOR Aerospace, is building a different type of rocket plane called the Lynx,
which is designed to take a pilot and one passenger on suborbital space
trips. XCOR is aiming to begin commercial service sometime in the next
year or two, with a ticket price in the neighborhood of $100,000.
Both Virgin Galactic and
XCOR are courting space tourists as well as researchers who want to fly
payloads on relatively low-cost space missions. Other companies — such
as Blue Origin, Boeing and Space Adventures
— also are working on commercial spaceflight opportunities. Virgin
Galactic was seen as the front-runner for suborbital space tourism, but
that status is likely to change in the wake of Friday's incident.
What's next?
Over the weekend, the
NTSB will be ramping up its investigation. Virgin Galactic's billionaire
founder, Richard Branson, is also due to arrive on the scene.
In a blog entry that was posted en route to California,
Branson said the trek was "one of the most difficult trips I have ever
had to make." But he said he wanted to be "with the dedicated and
hard-working people who are now in shock at this devastating loss."
The names of the
SpaceShipTwo test pilots have not yet been publicized, although Scaled
Composites' Kevin Mickey said they both worked for his company rather
than for Virgin Galactic. Those names may be announced during a weekend
news conference — and then we'll learn more about the personal tragedies
engendered by the crash.
The investigation is
expected to take several days, but the repercussions of SpaceShipTwo's
loss are likely to go on for months or years longer. Will the tragedy
force Virgin Galactic to redesign SpaceShipTwo 2.0? What will happen to New Mexico's Spaceport America,
which was counting on Virgin Galactic to start commercial operations
there next year? There are many questions ahead, but few clear answers.
NBCUniversal established a multi-platform partnership with Virgin Galactic to track the development of SpaceShipTwo.
First published November 1st 2014, 10:10 pm
Post a Comment