The worldwide reliance on burning fossil fuels
to create energy could be phased out in a decade, according to an
article published by a major energy think tank in the UK.
Professor Benjamin Sovacool, Director of the
Sussex Energy Group at the University of Sussex, believes that the next
great energy revolution could take place in a fraction of the time of
major changes in the past.
But it would take a collaborative, interdisciplinary,
multi-scalar effort to get there, he warns. And that effort must learn
from the trials and tribulations from previous energy systems and
technology transitions.
In a paper published in the peer-reviewed journal Energy Research & Social Science,
Professor Sovacool analyses energy transitions throughout history and
argues that only looking towards the past can often paint an overly
bleak and unnecessary picture.
Moving from wood to coal in Europe, for example, took
between 96 and 160 years, whereas electricity took 47 to 69 years to
enter into mainstream use.
But this time the future could be different, he says – the
scarcity of resources, the threat of climate change and vastly improved
technological learning and innovation could greatly accelerate a global
shift to a cleaner energy future.
The study highlights numerous examples of speedier
transitions that are often overlooked by analysts. For example, Ontario
completed a shift away from coal between 2003 and 2014; a major
household energy programme in Indonesia took just three years to move
two-thirds of the population from kerosene stoves to LPG stoves; and
France's nuclear power programme saw supply rocket from four per cent of
the electricity supply market in 1970 to 40 per cent in 1982.
Each of these cases has in common strong government intervention
coupled with shifts in consumer behaviour, often driven by incentives
and pressure from stakeholders.
Professor Sovacool says: "The mainstream view of energy
transitions as long, protracted affairs, often taking decades or
centuries to occur, is not always supported by the evidence.
"Moving to a new, cleaner energy system would require
significant shifts in technology, political regulations, tariffs and
pricing regimes, and the behaviour of users and adopters.
"Left to evolve by itself – as it has largely been in the
past – this can indeed take many decades. A lot of stars have to align
all at once.
"But we have learnt a sufficient amount from previous
transitions that I believe future transformations can happen much more
rapidly."
In sum, although the study suggests that the historical
record can be instructive in shaping our understanding of macro and
micro energy transitions, it need not be predictive.
Explore further:
Energiewende in the Alps: Switzerland's transition away from nuclear
More information:
Benjamin K. Sovacool. How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions, Energy Research & Social Science (2016). DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2015.12.020
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