SHANGHAI — Donald Trump’s success in the
Republican primaries has aroused much interest in China, particularly
since the front-runner has accused China of “raping” the U.S. economy,
with which it has a massive trade surplus.
But while some commentators have criticized
Trump — one official newspaper has previously called him a “racist” and
likened him to Hitler — the majority of a group of leading Chinese
international relations experts polled by Chinese
media Thursday suggested he would “have to moderate his views if
elected.” And several suggested that while he might seek to put more
pressure on China over the economy, they also thought Trump was less
likely to pressure Beijing over ideological or geopolitical issues —
including the island dispute in the South China Sea — than the
“politically correct” Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton. And many
experts suggested the bilateral relationship was strong enough to
withstand volatility.
China’s foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei
declined to comment specifically on Trump’s remarks or possible
candidacy Thursday – but called for all involved to “rationally and objectively view” the
relationship between the two countries, adding that “trade and business
cooperation is mutually beneficial and win-win.” The official Xinhua
news agency, however, accused Trump of attacking China to “woo voters,”
and of getting his figures and economics wrong. Yet it also suggested he
had a chance of beating Hillary Clinton, who it said “neither excites
nor galvanizes her base.”
And the official Global Times newspaper added,
in a commentary, that Trump had “created history” and “deeply impressed
U.S. politics.” It suggested that, while he might call for China to
open its markets wider, “If elected, Trump will be restricted by
interior and exterior realities … He will be more prudent if taking
office in the White House.”
And the paper said that Trump’s “isolationist”
instincts meant “ideology will be downplayed” if he is elected — and
contrasted this with Hillary Clinton, who it described
as “representative of US political correctness and the mainstream
thoughts.”
It’s a reminder that over recent decades,
China’s leaders are generally seen to have a preference for Republican
presidents, who they regard as less likely to pressure the country over
issues such as human rights.
And while four of the eight academics polled by the Global Times said
it was still more likely that Hillary Clinton would win, only one, Jia
Qingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking
University, said outright that a Trump presidency would be “no good news
for the Sino-U.S. relationship.”
Jia said that, in order to get elected, Trump
would “criticize current U.S. policies, including those related to
China," and would therefore be under pressure to “to take a hard stance
against China” if he became president. A Democrat victory, he said,
would “exert less influence on the Sino-U.S. relationship, as their
policies and personnel are more stable.”
But Jia suggested that there was no doubt that
ordinary “Chinese citizens prefer Trump to Clinton” — and he said this
was “understandable as the latter has criticized China a number of times
over cyber security, human rights and so forth.”
And the Global Times quoted a recent poll on
its Chinese website, which it said showed that 54 percent of 3,300
respondents “said they liked Trump.”
Another scholar, Wang Yiwei, director of
Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing, told
the Global Times that “Chinese regard Trump as a clown, funny and
unscrupulous,” but added that it was hard to be sure whether Trump’s
“China bashing” would continue if he were elected.
“I think Trump as U.S. president will be good
for Sino-US relations,” Wang said. “Trump sticks to isolationism when it
comes to foreign policy. He doesn't want the U.S. to bear so many
global responsibilities. In contrast, Clinton initiated the Asia-Pacific
rebalancing strategy which is aimed at containing China.”
Another scholar, Zhao Minghao, dismissed
Trump’s speeches on China as “mere claptrap,” saying he had got his
figures wrong. And he warned that if the U.S. implemented “radical trade
policies against China, this will not only hurt the interests of U.S.
consumers and enterprises, but also impair the whole global trade
system.” But Zhao agreed that it was “hard to say whether China-bashing
represents Trump's real attitude,” and said that “the China-U.S.
relationship cannot be easily shaken no matter who will become
president.”
Others polled by the Global Times echoed these
views, with one saying that as “an unswerving advocate of free trade
for decades,” the U.S. would not make a sudden U-turn in its policy,
even if Trump were elected; another suggested that Trump’s “advocacy of
nativism and isolationism is also a common approach adopted by U.S.
politicians during elections, and will surrender to pragmatism in real
actions.”
And Jin Canrong, a veteran Beijing-based China
watcher, stressed that “no matter who is elected to the White House, we
should have confidence in the Sino-U.S. relations.”
One reason for this, Jin said, was that the relationship was now tilted more in China’s favor.
“As its national strength booms, China has become more capable to shape the trajectory of the Sino-U.S. relationship,” he said.
It was a view echoed
by the Global Times’ editorial, which said that “Improving strength is
the most reliable way to respond to the U.S. uncertainties.”
And in a sign that whoever becomes president
is likely to face a more assertive Beijing, the paper earlier this week
called for the U.S. to moderate its policies in the South China Sea,
where Washington has carried out several “freedom of navigation"
missions close to islands reclaimed by China in disputed waters, which
Beijing claims as its own. In another editorial,
it said Beijing rejected such missions, along with attempts by the
Philippines, which also lays claim to part of the disputed region, to
seek international arbitration on the issue.
“This is not because China is growing
tougher,” the Global Times said, “but because the White House has
touched China’s bottom line. Washington should now reflect on this.”
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